WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
1202 PM EST Thursday December 28 2017

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF January

…WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK for January…
Streamflows are expected to be above normal across portions of Kentucky and
middle Tennessee. With a large snowpack in place across the Lake Erie snow
belt, flood potential is above normal. Elsewhere, streamflows are forecast
to be near normal.

……………………………………………………………

…HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL…
Flood potential will be near normal for most of the Ohio Valley. Flood
potential is elevated across the Lake Erie snow belt where a large
snowpack exists. Flood potential is also slightly elevated across portions
of Kentucky and middle Tennessee where heavy rains fell before Christmas.

Drought conditions are not expected.

……………………………………………………………

…December HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL REVIEW…

The highest amounts of liquid precipitation fell across the Lake Erie
snowbelt. 6 to 7 inches water equivalent fell near Erie Pennsylvania
(close to 200 percent of normal). Close to 7 inches of rain fell across
Middle Tennessee (around 150 percent of normal). Kentucky, southern Ohio,
western Pennsylvania and West Virginia received 2 to 4 inches of rain
(75 to 110 percent of normal). Across the remainder of Ohio, Indiana
and southeastern Illinois received 1 to 2 inches (25 to 70 percent of
normal).

http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg

…SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS…
Soil moisture is in the 70th to 90th percentile across Ohio, western
Pennsylvania and pockets in Tennessee and Kentucky. Elsewhere, soil
moisture is near normal.


http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

…STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS…

Current streamflow conditions are normal across a good chunk of the Ohio
Valley. Pockets of above normal exist across northern Ohio. The northern
half of Indiana has below normal streamflows.

http://watermonitor.gov

……………………………………………………………

…ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR January…

ARCTIC OSCILLATION neutral = average


NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION neutral trending positive = wetter


PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION negative = wetter


Weak La Nina = wetter


http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

……………………………………………………………

…Summary…

The start of January will be fairly dry and cold across most of the
Ohio Valley. The snowpack across Lake Erie will build as more snow
is expected in the coming days. The weather pattern will become more
active the second half of January.

……………………………………………………………..

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK…YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$

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